Bridging the Disconnect: The Markets and the Economy

How is it possible that the stock market is so resilient? Approximately 20-30 million Americans are out of work, and both COVID-19 and social unrest continue, but the S&P 500 recovered from a historic shock within a month. As remarkable as…

COVID-19 Response Diagnosis: Inflation or Deflation?

The United States is on course to amass a $3.7 trillion additional net debt for 2020, the equivalent of 17.9% of the national GDP, the largest on both accounts since WWII. The aggregate gross domestic government debt-to-GDP ratio has tripled…

Patient Capital in a Turbulent Market

The recent dramatic swings in the equity market are unprecedented in terms of speed and volatility. With economies and supply chains going all but dark in the wave that began in the Hubei province of China in January and is…

A (Temporary) Breach in the Defensive Line: Municipal Bonds

We do not believe that municipal bond credit risks justify the continued high yields relative to Treasuries. First, a brief recap. After 60 consecutive weeks of inflow into municipal bond funds averaging $2 billion a week, sentiment shifted at the…

Bets Off: The Trade Behind Recent Market Volatility

How is it possible for the stock market to swing 10% up or down in a single day, or for the entire Treasury bond yield curve to plunge by over 50% in under a month? Is it all about COVID-19,…

Weathering the Storm: Portfolio Investing in a Pandemic

As the United States shuts down in an unprecedented fight against a pandemic and more than three million people file for unemployment in a single week, Wall Street is making its bets on the economic outcome. The initial response was…

Keeping Calm in a Market Panic

Stocks have dropped precipitously as investors anticipate recession and an accompanying credit crisis.

Q&A with Muzinich

Editor’s note: Evercore Wealth Management supplements its core investment capabilities with carefully selected outside funds across the range of the firm’s asset classes. Here is the second Independent Thinking interview with Michael McEachern, the manager of the Muzinich Credit Opportunities…

What’s Up with Negative Interest Rates?

The first of what modern investors would recognize as government bonds were issued in the 12th century by the city-state of Venice to finance continual wars with the Byzantine Empire and rival Italian city-states. All Venetian citizens were required to…

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