Positioning for the Future: Navigating Cycles, Global Shifts, and Legacy Planning
This edition explores the current surge in capital expenditures (CapEx), driven by AI adoption, semiconductor manufacturing, and reshoring initiatives, and the implications for investors. It revisits historical CapEx cycles to draw parallels and cautionary lessons for today’s tech-driven investment boom.
The issue also delves into strategic wealth planning amid the impending sunset of the estate tax exemption in 2026, encouraging timely gifting and trust structures. Global insights include investment perspectives on China’s economic trajectory and Japan’s market resurgence. Finally, the publication emphasizes the importance of aging well and engaging the next generation in legacy planning.
Independent thinking®
VOLUME 51
Positioning for the Future: Navigating Cycles, Global Shifts, and Legacy Planning
AI-Driven Capital Expenditures and Economic Shifts – Massive investments by tech giants in AI infrastructure, energy, and semiconductors are reshaping corporate strategies and national priorities, with risks of overbuilding and concentrated market exposure.
Historical Context: Capital Spending Booms and Busts – By comparing past CapEx cycles—from railroads to telecoms—the publication outlines how early overinvestment often leads to crashes, but long-term value typically emerges for adjacent beneficiaries
Strategic Estate Planning Before the Exemption Sunset – With the estate and gift tax exemption set to halve after 2025, families are urged to act now by using trusts like SLATs, IDGTs, and Dynasty Trusts to secure multigenerational wealth transfer.
Global Investment Insights: China and Japan – China is focusing on productivity-driven growth amid demographic decline and tech decoupling, while Japan offers undervalued equity opportunities with corporate reforms and favorable earnings trends.
